Plain-language answer
Does the growth narrative match the mechanics producing revenue?
The revenue dependency model compares concentration, recurring share, forecast variance, attribution confidence, retention, and the narrative claim.
Short answer
Use evidence that can survive a second reader.
- Forecast variance equals actual minus forecast, divided by forecast.
- A dependency is fragile when channel share is at least 40%, recurring share is below 50%, absolute forecast variance is at least 20%, or attribution confidence is below 50%.
- Estimated repeatable share sums each revenue share multiplied by its recurring share.
Worked example
See the decision in a fictional case.
- Channel
- Founder-led referrals
- Revenue Share
- 46
- Recurring Share
- 35
- Forecast
- 850000
- Actual
- 620000
- Attribution Confidence
- 80
Use Revenue StoryInspect the full methodTake it into the matching Petrichor work
What this answer cannot establish
- Raw amounts remain local and user-supplied; the model is not an audit.