How much planned growth spend is exposed to weak evidence or message fit?

Short answer

Use evidence that can survive a second reader.

1. Readiness equals 0.40 times evidence strength, plus 0.25 times message fit, plus 0.20 times response discipline, plus 0.15 times fallback quality.
2. Estimated exposure rate equals one minus readiness.
3. Spend at risk equals planned spend multiplied by estimated exposure rate.
4. Exposure at or above 60% produces Stop; 35% to under 60% produces Test first; below 35% produces Spend now.

Worked example

See the decision in a fictional case.

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What this answer cannot establish

• The result is a decision estimate, not a forecast or financial advice.