PETRICHOR

Core strategy instrument · Calculator

Spend-at-Risk Calculator

Get the number, see the formula, and identify the evidence most likely to change the answer.

Start with my inputs

No account. No email gate. The primary result and exports are free.

Work locally. Structured inputs calculate in this browser. Do not enter confidential, regulated, privileged, customer-identifying, or personal information.

Visible formula and sensitivity

Change an assumption. See the model move.

After the first complete result, changing a numeric input recalculates the model. Ranges and answer-changing assumptions stay visible in the artifact.

  1. Readiness equals 0.40 times evidence strength, plus 0.25 times message fit, plus 0.20 times response discipline, plus 0.15 times fallback quality.
  2. Estimated exposure rate equals one minus readiness.
  3. Spend at risk equals planned spend multiplied by estimated exposure rate.
  4. Exposure at or above 60% produces Stop; 35% to under 60% produces Test first; below 35% produces Spend now.

Definition and worked example

See the method before entering your own evidence.

Who should use it: Estimate how much planned growth spend is exposed to weak evidence or message fit.

Decision basis: The model estimates exposure from planned spend and four readiness factors normalized from zero to one. Readiness equals 0.40 times evidence strength, plus 0.25 times message fit, plus 0.20 times response discipline, plus 0.15 times fallback quality.

Read the complete versioned method · Read the highest-intent answer

Clearly fictional input

Spend scenario
Q4 category launch
Planned spend
350000
Evidence strength (1 to 5)
2
Message-to-buyer fit (1 to 5)
3
Underperformance response (1 to 5)
2
Test coverage
One landing-page test with no buyer interviews

This sample runs through the same method and artifact structure as your own work.

Structured work

Build the spend exposure model

Every field affects the result or the working artifact. Add up to 8 records.

Transparent method

How this instrument reaches a result

The model estimates exposure from planned spend and four readiness factors normalized from zero to one. Readiness equals 0.40 times evidence strength, plus 0.25 times message fit, plus 0.20 times response discipline, plus 0.15 times fallback quality.

See the fields and decision basis
  • Spend scenario: required input used in the result and artifact.
  • Planned spend: required input used in the result and artifact.
  • Evidence strength (1 to 5): required input used in the result and artifact.
  • Message-to-buyer fit (1 to 5): required input used in the result and artifact.
  • Underperformance response (1 to 5): required input used in the result and artifact.
  • Test coverage: optional input used in the result and artifact.
  • Fallback quality (1 to 5): required input used in the result and artifact.
  • Input confidence: required input used in the result and artifact.

Questions about Spend-at-Risk Calculator

What do I leave with?

A versioned spend exposure model with visible reasoning, evidence status, next action, review date, and structured exports.

Does the result use a benchmark or AI?

No. The result uses the visible deterministic rules for this instrument and only the inputs you provide. It is not compared with other customers.

When does the paid work begin?

After the artifact. Petrichor helps the team challenge evidence, reconcile disagreement, assign ownership, and commit to the organizational decision without making you repeat the free work.

The method is versioned. No cross-customer benchmark is used. Review the full method and change history, the relevant plain-language answer, or the permanent Tool Trust Charter.

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